Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo · Analysis updated 13:42 UTC
Alcorcon vs Ibiza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Alcorcon and 1.13 for Ibiza, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Alcorcon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Alcorcon win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alcorcon home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ibiza away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–16.2%
Recent form
Alcorcon
- 2026-10-16T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Huesca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Teruel · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Torremolinos · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnastic · 3-0 (W)
Ibiza
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Zaragoza · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Jaén · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sant Andreu · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Majadahonda · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-29T10:00:00.000Z · Alcorcon 2-2 Ibiza (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2025-12-21T11:00:00.000Z · Alcorcon 2-2 Ibiza (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2025-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · Alcorcon 0-2 Ibiza (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2024-12-22T16:30:00.000Z · Alcorcon 1-2 Ibiza (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2022-01-08T15:00:00.000Z · Alcorcon 2-6 Ibiza (Segunda División)
- 2021-11-01T15:00:00.000Z · Alcorcon 0-2 Ibiza (Segunda División)
- 2021-08-06T16:45:00.000Z · Alcorcon 2-1 Ibiza (Friendlies Clubs)
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaragoza | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | FC Cartagena | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Real Murcia | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Villarreal II | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | Alcorcon | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 6 | Hércules | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Real Jaén | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Huesca | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Antequera | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Ibiza | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Atlético Madrid II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Real Madrid II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | Sant Andreu | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Gimnastic | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Algeciras | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Europa Fc | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 17 | Águilas | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 | Teruel | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
| 19 | Rayo Majadahonda | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 20 | Juventud Torremolinos | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alcorcon win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.