Alcorcon vs Rayo Majadahonda Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Alcorcon and 0.95 for Rayo Majadahonda, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives Alcorcon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Alcorcon win

45.8% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.34 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Alcorcon home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Rayo Majadahonda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Alcorcon win46%

Draw28%

Rayo Majadahonda win27%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–013.5%
1–112.9%
0–010.1%
0–19.6%
2–09.1%

Recent form

Alcorcon

2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnastic · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Antequera · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Europa Fc · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-30T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Águilas · 2-2 (D)

Rayo Majadahonda

2026-10-11T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Algeciras · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Europa Fc · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Teruel · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Cartagena · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-12T08:00:00.000Z · Alcorcon 1-1 Rayo Majadahonda (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-07-29T19:00:00.000Z · Alcorcon 1-0 Rayo Majadahonda (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-07-29T19:00:00.000Z · Alcorcon 1-0 Rayo Majadahonda (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-04-29T17:00:00.000Z · Alcorcon 2-1 Rayo Majadahonda (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
2022-11-26T15:00:00.000Z · Alcorcon 2-1 Rayo Majadahonda (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
2019-03-10T11:00:00.000Z · Alcorcon 0-2 Rayo Majadahonda (Segunda División)
2018-11-04T17:00:00.000Z · Alcorcon 2-0 Rayo Majadahonda (Segunda División)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Alcorcon win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.