Alcoyano vs Cieza Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Alcoyano and 1.21 for Cieza, a combined total of 2.14. That distribution gives Cieza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

71.6% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.93 – 1.21

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Alcoyano home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cieza away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cieza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 28% / 29% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Alcoyano and 1.21 for Cieza, a combined 2.14 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Alcoyano win28%

Draw29%

Cieza win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

0–114.2%
1–113.2%
0–011.8%
1–011.0%
0–28.6%

Recent form

Alcoyano

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ucam Murcia · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mallorca II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportiva Minera · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Poblense · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Castellón II · 0-3 (L)

Cieza

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Intercity · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Orihuela · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Baleares · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Castellonense · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Elche II · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ucam Murcia	6	4	0	2	8	12
2	Castellón II	6	4	0	2	6	12
3	Castellonense	6	4	0	2	4	12
4	La Nucía	6	4	0	2	4	12
5	Cieza	6	3	2	1	6	11
6	Deportiva Minera	6	3	2	1	2	11
7	Alcoyano	6	3	1	2	0	10
8	Yeclano	6	2	3	1	1	9
9	Intercity	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Lorca Deportiva	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Elche II	6	2	1	3	-2	7
12	Orihuela	6	2	1	3	-7	7
13	Mallorca II	6	1	3	2	-2	6
14	Atlético Baleares	6	1	3	2	-3	6
15	Poblense	6	2	0	4	-3	6
16	Peña Deportiva	6	1	1	4	-3	4
17	Valencia II	6	1	1	4	-5	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	1	1	4	-7	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.