Estadio El Collao · Analysis updated 15:09 UTC
Alcoyano vs Real Murcia II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Alcoyano and 0.95 for Real Murcia II, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Alcoyano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Alcoyano win
59.1% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alcoyano home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Murcia II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alcoyano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 22% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Alcoyano and 0.95 for Real Murcia II, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.1%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.5%
Recent form
Alcoyano
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ucam Murcia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mallorca II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportiva Minera · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Poblense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Castellón II · 0-3 (L)
Real Murcia II
- 2026-10-04T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Castellonense · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Peña Deportiva · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mallorca II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs La Nucía · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Orihuela · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón II | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 |
| 2 | La Nucía | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Castellonense | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Alcoyano | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Ucam Murcia | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
| 6 | Intercity | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Cieza | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | Deportiva Minera | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Yeclano | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Orihuela | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 7 |
| 11 | Lorca Deportiva | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Mallorca II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | Atlético Baleares | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | Valencia II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Elche II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Poblense | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 17 | Real Murcia II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | Peña Deportiva | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alcoyano win, at 59.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.