· Analysis updated 17:49 UTC
Alcúdia vs Mercadal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Alcúdia and 1.28 for Mercadal, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Alcúdia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alcúdia win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alcúdia home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mercadal away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alcúdia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Alcúdia and 1.28 for Mercadal, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–07.3%
Recent form
Alcúdia
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Constància · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Santanyí · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Arenal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Inter Ibiza · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mercadal · 2-3 (L)
Mercadal
- 2026-10-24T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Porreres · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cardassar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcúdia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Constància · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Santanyí · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Platges Calvià | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Constància | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Manacor | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Cardassar | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Santanyí | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Porreres | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | PE Sant Jordi | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Alcúdia | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Formentera | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Llosetense | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Mercadal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Binissalem | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Andratx | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Migjorn | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 16 | Arenal | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Sineu | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 2 |
| 18 | Inter Ibiza | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alcúdia win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.