Aldershot Town vs Carlisle Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Aldershot Town and 0.90 for Carlisle, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Aldershot Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Aldershot Town win

59.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Aldershot Town home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Carlisle away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aldershot Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 23% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Aldershot Town and 0.90 for Carlisle, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Aldershot Town win59%

Draw23%

Carlisle win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–012.0%
2–010.9%
1–110.8%
2–19.8%
3–06.6%

Recent form

Aldershot Town

2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Norwich City U21 · 5-3 (W)
2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Altrincham · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Carlisle · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs AFC Hornchurch · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tamworth · 5-1 (W)

Carlisle

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Solihull Moors · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tamworth · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Kidderminster Harriers · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aldershot Town · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs AFC Fylde · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	14	12	2	0	25	38
2	Harrogate Town	14	10	1	3	14	31
3	Southend	14	8	4	2	12	28
4	Worthing	14	8	3	3	10	27
5	Altrincham	14	9	0	5	2	27
6	Yeovil Town	14	7	4	3	16	25
7	AFC Fylde	14	7	2	5	2	23
8	FC Halifax Town	14	6	3	5	7	21
9	Barrow	13	6	3	4	6	21
10	AFC Hornchurch	14	7	0	7	-5	21
11	Carlisle	14	5	5	4	4	20
12	Kidderminster Harriers	14	5	5	4	2	20
13	Woking	14	5	3	6	1	18
14	Aldershot Town	14	5	3	6	1	18
15	Eastleigh	14	5	3	6	-4	18
16	Sutton Utd	14	5	3	6	-6	18
17	Forest Green	12	4	3	5	-3	15
18	Wealdstone	14	4	3	7	-6	15
19	Hartlepool	14	5	0	9	-6	15
20	Tamworth	13	4	2	7	-9	14
21	Boston United	14	3	3	8	-10	12
22	Scunthorpe	13	3	1	9	-7	10
23	Solihull Moors	14	2	1	11	-23	7
24	Gateshead	13	1	1	11	-23	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Aldershot Town win, at 59.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.