Estadio Jose Maria Minella · Referee S. Zunino · Analysis updated 15:39 UTC
Aldosivi vs Atletico Tucuman Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.87 expected goals for Aldosivi and 1.03 for Atletico Tucuman, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Atletico Tucuman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.1% probability
Expected goals
0.87 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aldosivi home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Tucuman away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.4%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–113.4%
- 1–013.0%
- 0–27.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.65 (model 62.6% vs market 56.6%, edge +6.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.65 | 56.6% | 62.6% | 1.60 | +6.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.53 | 61.1% | 61.6% | 1.62 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 3.10 | 29.7% | 29.9% | 3.34 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.40 | 38.4% | 38.4% | 2.60 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.33 | 70.2% | 70.1% | 1.43 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.88 | 32.0% | 31.7% | 3.15 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 68.7% | 68.3% | 1.46 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.15 | 43.4% | 37.4% | 2.67 | -6.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Aldosivi
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Junin · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Huracan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Independ. Rivadavia · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 3-1 (W)
Atletico Tucuman
- 2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Barracas Central · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Aldosivi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Independ. Rivadavia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T20:30:00.000Z · H vs River Plate · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-21T17:30:00.000Z · Aldosivi 1-0 Atletico Tucuman (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2026-03-12T01:00:00.000Z · Aldosivi 1-1 Atletico Tucuman (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-07-16T00:30:00.000Z · Aldosivi 0-1 Atletico Tucuman (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2021-08-14T16:30:00.000Z · Aldosivi 2-2 Atletico Tucuman (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2019-08-26T22:00:00.000Z · Aldosivi 3-0 Atletico Tucuman (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2019-03-31T14:00:00.000Z · Aldosivi 0-1 Atletico Tucuman (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2017-03-21T00:15:00.000Z · Aldosivi 0-0 Atletico Tucuman (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2014-03-29T23:00:00.000Z · Aldosivi 1-1 Atletico Tucuman (Primera Nacional)
- 2013-09-29T20:00:00.000Z · Aldosivi 0-2 Atletico Tucuman (Primera Nacional)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.