Estadio Jose Maria Minella · Referee Sebastian Zunino · Analysis updated 11:36 UTC
Aldosivi vs Belgrano Cordoba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.82 expected goals for Aldosivi and 1.18 for Belgrano Cordoba, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Belgrano Cordoba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
74.5% probability
Expected goals
0.82 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aldosivi home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Belgrano Cordoba away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 0 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.0%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–29.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 61.2% vs market 50.0%, edge +11.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 50.0% | 61.2% | 1.63 | +11.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.73 | 54.3% | 55.8% | 1.79 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Home | 3.60 | 25.3% | 25.6% | 3.91 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 30.3% | 30.2% | 3.31 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.05 | 44.4% | 44.3% | 2.26 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.25 | 75.1% | 74.5% | 1.34 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.6% | 69.9% | 1.43 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 50.0% | 38.8% | 2.58 | -11.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Aldosivi
- 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Junin · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Huracan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Independ. Rivadavia · 3-4 (L)
Belgrano Cordoba
- 2026-10-18T23:15:00.000Z · H vs River Plate · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Cordoba · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento Junin · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T00:00:00.000Z · Aldosivi 0-1 Belgrano Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-08-15T18:30:00.000Z · Aldosivi 0-0 Belgrano Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-02-12T01:15:00.000Z · Aldosivi 0-2 Belgrano Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2018-09-24T21:00:00.000Z · Aldosivi 2-0 Belgrano Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2016-10-15T00:15:00.000Z · Aldosivi 0-0 Belgrano Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2015-03-16T23:00:00.000Z · Aldosivi 1-0 Belgrano Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 74.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.