Estadio Florencio Sola · Referee C. Gariano · Analysis updated 16:34 UTC
Aldosivi vs Independ. Rivadavia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Aldosivi and 1.53 for Independ. Rivadavia, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Aldosivi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aldosivi home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Independ. Rivadavia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–07.0%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Aldosivi
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Junin · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Huracan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Independ. Rivadavia · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 3-1 (W)
Independ. Rivadavia
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosario Central · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · Aldosivi 3-4 Independ. Rivadavia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2026-08-26T22:15:00.000Z · Aldosivi 0-2 Independ. Rivadavia (Copa Argentina)
- 2026-05-03T16:30:00.000Z · Aldosivi 1-1 Independ. Rivadavia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-11-01T17:45:00.000Z · Aldosivi 3-1 Independ. Rivadavia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-04-23T00:15:00.000Z · Aldosivi 0-1 Independ. Rivadavia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2023-06-17T20:00:00.000Z · Aldosivi 1-2 Independ. Rivadavia (Primera Nacional)
- 2023-02-10T22:10:00.000Z · Aldosivi 1-2 Independ. Rivadavia (Primera Nacional)
- 2017-12-09T20:00:00.000Z · Aldosivi 0-0 Independ. Rivadavia (Primera Nacional)
- 2014-04-06T19:00:00.000Z · Aldosivi 2-2 Independ. Rivadavia (Primera Nacional)
- 2013-10-05T18:30:00.000Z · Aldosivi 0-1 Independ. Rivadavia (Primera Nacional)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.