Estadio Jose Maria Minella · Referee L. Lobo Medina · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Aldosivi and 0.91 for Sarmiento Junin, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Aldosivi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.0% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aldosivi home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sarmiento Junin away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–015.0%
- 1–014.8%
- 0–113.6%
- 1–113.5%
- 2–07.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.73 (model 62.5% vs market 54.2%, edge +8.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.73 | 54.2% | 62.5% | 1.60 | +8.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.50 | 62.4% | 63.8% | 1.57 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Away | 2.90 | 31.6% | 32.0% | 3.13 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 31.6% | 31.8% | 3.14 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.50 | 36.7% | 36.2% | 2.76 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 68.8% | 68.2% | 1.47 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 68.8% | 68.0% | 1.47 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.05 | 45.8% | 37.5% | 2.67 | -8.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Aldosivi
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Junin · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Huracan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Independ. Rivadavia · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 3-1 (W)
Sarmiento Junin
- 2026-09-19T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Belgrano Cordoba · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Santa Fe · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-23T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes L.P. · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-22T18:30:00.000Z · Aldosivi 0-2 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-09-14T00:15:00.000Z · Aldosivi 0-2 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-03-01T20:00:00.000Z · Aldosivi 2-2 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · Aldosivi 1-2 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2021-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · Aldosivi 0-3 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2018-03-24T22:05:00.000Z · Aldosivi 0-1 Sarmiento Junin (Primera Nacional)
- 2016-12-17T20:00:00.000Z · Aldosivi 2-0 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2015-03-02T21:00:00.000Z · Aldosivi 2-2 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2014-05-03T17:00:00.000Z · Aldosivi 1-0 Sarmiento Junin (Primera Nacional)
- 2013-11-03T20:00:00.000Z · Aldosivi 0-0 Sarmiento Junin (Primera Nacional)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.