· Referee J. O. Montes Santos · Analysis updated 18:06 UTC
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs CA La Paz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 2.12 for CA La Paz, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives CA La Paz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CA La Paz win
60.8% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 2.12
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CA La Paz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 19% / 20% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 2.12 for CA La Paz, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.3%
- 0–29.0%
- 0–18.5%
- 1–37.0%
Recent form
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
- 2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Monarcas · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-28T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tapatío · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T01:00:00.000Z · A vs CDS Tampico Madero · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-14T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tepatitlán · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Tlaxcala · 2-0 (W)
CA La Paz
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga de Expansión MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA La Paz | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 27 |
| 2 | Leones Negros UDG | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 27 |
| 3 | Piratas | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 24 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Monarcas | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 23 |
| 6 | Cancún | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 7 | Durango | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 19 |
| 9 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 18 |
| 10 | Tapatío | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 11 | Correcaminos Uat | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Tlaxcala | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 16 |
| 14 | CDS Tampico Madero | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 15 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -5 | 14 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -31 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CA La Paz win, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.