Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 1.74 for Tapatío, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Tapatío the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tapatío win

45.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.74

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tapatío away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tapatío to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 31% / 23% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 1.74 for Tapatío, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Alebrijes de Oaxaca win31%

Draw23%

Tapatío win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.5%
1–29.1%
2–17.4%
0–17.4%
2–26.5%

Recent form

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Monarcas · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-28T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tapatío · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-23T01:00:00.000Z · A vs CDS Tampico Madero · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-14T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tepatitlán · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-06T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Tlaxcala · 2-0 (W)

Tapatío

2026-10-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs CA La Paz · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Cancún · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Tlaxcala · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-13T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Dorados · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-06T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Leones Negros UDG · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga de Expansión MX table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CA La Paz	13	7	3	3	13	24
2	Leones Negros UDG	13	7	3	3	10	24
3	Monarcas	13	7	2	4	8	23
4	Piratas	13	6	3	4	7	21
5	Venados FC	13	6	3	4	5	21
6	Durango	13	6	3	4	5	21
7	Cancún	13	5	4	4	4	19
8	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	5	3	5	3	18
9	Tapatío	13	5	2	6	-2	17
10	Dorados	13	4	4	5	-1	16
11	Correcaminos Uat	13	4	4	5	-1	16
12	Tlaxcala	13	4	4	5	-2	16
13	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	13	5	1	7	-12	16
14	CDS Tampico Madero	13	4	3	6	-6	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	13	3	5	5	-4	14
16	Tepatitlán	13	2	1	10	-27	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tapatío win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.