New Tivoli · Analysis updated 14:52 UTC
Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Alemannia Aachen and 1.63 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 3.61. That distribution gives Alemannia Aachen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Alemannia Aachen win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alemannia Aachen home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hansa Rostock away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.7%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 3–15.7%
Recent form
Alemannia Aachen
- 2026-10-01T11:30:00.000Z · A vs AS Eupen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Düsseldorf · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Würzburger Kickers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs SSV Jahn Regensburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 3-0 (W)
Hansa Rostock
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgart II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Viktoria Köln · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Wehen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T11:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Saarbrücken · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-02T12:00:00.000Z · Alemannia Aachen 1-1 Hansa Rostock (3. Liga)
- 2025-12-07T15:30:00.000Z · Alemannia Aachen 2-2 Hansa Rostock (3. Liga)
- 2025-03-16T18:30:00.000Z · Alemannia Aachen 2-1 Hansa Rostock (3. Liga)
- 2024-10-19T12:00:00.000Z · Alemannia Aachen 2-1 Hansa Rostock (3. Liga)
- 2013-04-12T17:00:00.000Z · Alemannia Aachen 3-4 Hansa Rostock (3. Liga)
- 2012-10-20T12:00:00.000Z · Alemannia Aachen 0-1 Hansa Rostock (3. Liga)
- 2012-02-19T13:10:00.000Z · Alemannia Aachen 0-0 Hansa Rostock (2. Bundesliga)
- 2011-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · Alemannia Aachen 0-0 Hansa Rostock (2. Bundesliga)
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Hansa Rostock | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 5 | FC Saarbrücken | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Waldhof Mannheim | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Hoffenheim II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Alemannia Aachen | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 11 | Stuttgart II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Verl | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 13 | Fortuna Köln | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | SV Meppen | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| 16 | Würzburger Kickers | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 18 | SV Wehen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 19 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Havelse | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alemannia Aachen win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.