New Tivoli · Referee B. H. Uhrig · Analysis updated 14:48 UTC
Alemannia Aachen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Alemannia Aachen and 2.03 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 4.53. That distribution gives Alemannia Aachen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alemannia Aachen win
49.1% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alemannia Aachen home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SSV Jahn Regensburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alemannia Aachen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 19% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Alemannia Aachen and 2.03 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined 4.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.9%
- 2–16.9%
- 3–25.8%
- 3–15.7%
- 1–25.6%
Recent form
Alemannia Aachen
- 2026-10-01T11:30:00.000Z · A vs AS Eupen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Düsseldorf · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Würzburger Kickers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs SSV Jahn Regensburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 3-0 (W)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Havelse · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs WSG Wattens · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgart II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Düsseldorf · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Alemannia Aachen · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · Alemannia Aachen 2-2 SSV Jahn Regensburg (3. Liga)
- 2026-04-17T17:00:00.000Z · Alemannia Aachen 3-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg (3. Liga)
- 2025-11-22T13:00:00.000Z · Alemannia Aachen 0-2 SSV Jahn Regensburg (3. Liga)
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Hansa Rostock | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 5 | FC Saarbrücken | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Waldhof Mannheim | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Hoffenheim II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Alemannia Aachen | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 11 | Stuttgart II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Verl | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 13 | Fortuna Köln | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | SV Meppen | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| 16 | Würzburger Kickers | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 18 | SV Wehen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 19 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Havelse | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alemannia Aachen win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.