Alemannia Aachen vs SV Meppen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Alemannia Aachen and 1.00 for SV Meppen, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Alemannia Aachen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Alemannia Aachen win

60.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Alemannia Aachen home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SV Meppen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alemannia Aachen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 21% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Alemannia Aachen and 1.00 for SV Meppen, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Alemannia Aachen win61%

Draw21%

SV Meppen win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–010.0%
1–110.0%
2–010.0%
2–110.0%
3–06.6%

Recent form

Alemannia Aachen

2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgart II · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hansa Rostock · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Wehen · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Viktoria Köln · 2-5 (L)
2026-10-01T11:30:00.000Z · A vs AS Eupen · 1-3 (L)

SV Meppen

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger Kickers · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Havelse · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgart II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoffenheim II · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · Alemannia Aachen 0-3 SV Meppen (3. Liga)

3. Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	MSV Duisburg	11	8	1	2	14	25
2	FC Viktoria Köln	11	7	2	2	15	23
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	11	6	3	2	6	21
4	FC Saarbrücken	10	5	2	3	7	17
5	Alemannia Aachen	11	5	2	4	0	17
6	FC Ingolstadt 04	11	5	2	4	-1	17
7	Hoffenheim II	10	5	1	4	5	16
8	Hansa Rostock	11	4	4	3	-2	16
9	SV Wehen	11	4	3	4	3	15
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	11	4	3	4	-2	15
11	SV Meppen	11	4	2	5	-1	14
12	Stuttgart II	11	4	2	5	-2	14
13	Waldhof Mannheim	10	4	1	5	0	13
14	Preußen Münster	10	3	3	4	-3	12
15	Verl	11	3	3	5	-6	12
16	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	11	3	3	5	-12	12
17	Würzburger Kickers	11	3	2	6	-8	11
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	11	2	4	5	0	10
19	Fortuna Köln	10	2	4	4	-3	10
20	Havelse	10	1	3	6	-10	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Alemannia Aachen win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.