Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta · Analysis updated 17:42 UTC
Alessandria vs Celle Varazze Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.54 expected goals for Alessandria and 0.60 for Celle Varazze, a combined total of 3.14. That distribution gives Alessandria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Alessandria win
79.5% probability
Expected goals
2.54 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alessandria home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Celle Varazze away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alessandria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 14% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.54 goals for Alessandria and 0.60 for Celle Varazze, a combined 3.14 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.0%
- 3–011.8%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–18.4%
- 4–07.5%
Recent form
Alessandria
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fezzanese · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Biellese · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Derthona · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Imperia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Asti · 2-0 (W)
Celle Varazze
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sestri Levante · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bra · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chisola · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ligorna · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Saluzzo · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandria | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Biellese | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Millesimo | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Chisola | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | Ligorna | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Sanremese | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Derthona | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Lascaris | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 9 | Asti | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Imperia | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Saluzzo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Gozzano | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Bra | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Borgosesia | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | Sestri Levante | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | Fezzanese | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Valenzana | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 18 | Celle Varazze | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alessandria win, at 79.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.