Alessandria vs Sestri Levante Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Alessandria and 0.76 for Sestri Levante, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Alessandria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Alessandria win

62.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.80 – 0.76

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Alessandria home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sestri Levante away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alessandria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 23% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Alessandria and 0.76 for Sestri Levante, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Alessandria win62%

Draw23%

Sestri Levante win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–014.0%
2–012.5%
1–110.6%
2–19.5%
0–07.8%

Recent form

Alessandria

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fezzanese · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-07T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Biellese · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Derthona · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Imperia · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Asti · 2-0 (W)

Sestri Levante

2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sampdoria U20 · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Genoa U20 · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanremese · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Celle Varazze · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Asti · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie D - Girone A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alessandria	9	8	0	1	9	24
2	Chisola	9	5	2	2	8	17
3	Biellese	9	5	2	2	7	17
4	Millesimo	9	5	1	3	9	16
5	Ligorna	9	5	1	3	5	16
6	Imperia	9	4	2	3	2	14
7	Sanremese	9	3	4	2	3	13
8	Derthona	9	3	4	2	-1	13
9	Borgosesia	9	3	3	3	0	12
10	Saluzzo	9	2	5	2	0	11
11	Asti	9	3	2	4	-3	11
12	Lascaris	9	3	2	4	-4	11
13	Gozzano	8	3	1	4	-4	10
14	Bra	9	2	4	3	-2	10
15	Fezzanese	9	3	1	5	-5	10
16	Sestri Levante	9	2	3	4	-3	9
17	Valenzana	9	1	2	6	-7	5
18	Celle Varazze	8	0	1	7	-14	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Alessandria win, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.