· Analysis updated 08:40 UTC
Alexandria vs Filiaşi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Alexandria and 1.08 for Filiaşi, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Alexandria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alexandria win
48.9% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alexandria home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Filiaşi away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alexandria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 25% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Alexandria and 1.08 for Filiaşi, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–011.1%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.8%
- 0–17.6%
Recent form
Alexandria
- 2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Cetatea · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Bucureşti II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Voluntari II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Axi Adunații-Copăceni · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FCSB II · 3-1 (W)
Filiaşi
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Păușești · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CS U Craiova II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oltul Curtişoara · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vulturii Fărcăşeşti · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs CSM Targu Jiu · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Omega Sport | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Alexandria | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | LPS HD Clinceni | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Dinamo Bucureşti II | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 6 | Progresul Mogosoaia | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 7 | Axi Adunații-Copăceni | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 8 | Cetatea | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 |
| 9 | Oxigen Bucuresti | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Voluntari II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 11 | FCSB II | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 12 | Progresul Spartac | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alexandria win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.