· Analysis updated 09:50 UTC
Alexandros Florinas vs Kastoria Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Alexandros Florinas and 0.88 for Kastoria, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Alexandros Florinas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Alexandros Florinas win
62.5% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alexandros Florinas home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alexandros Florinas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 21% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Alexandros Florinas and 0.88 for Kastoria, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.6%
- 2–011.3%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–07.3%
Recent form
Alexandros Florinas
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vatolakkos · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Veria · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Thyella Katsikas · 4-1 (W)
Kastoria
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Makedonikos Siatista | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Veria | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 3 | Anagennisi Artas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 4 | Eordaikos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Alexandros Florinas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 6 | Doxa Mascholouriou | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 7 | Kastoria | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Naousa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | PAS Giannina | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 10 | Thyella Katsikas | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 11 | Vatolakkos | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alexandros Florinas win, at 62.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.