· Analysis updated 20:56 UTC
Alexandros Florinas vs Vatolakkos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.20 expected goals for Alexandros Florinas and 0.64 for Vatolakkos, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Alexandros Florinas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 86%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 86% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alexandros Florinas win
86.2% probability
Expected goals
3.20 – 0.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alexandros Florinas home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alexandros Florinas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 86%, against 86% / 9% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.20 goals for Alexandros Florinas and 0.64 for Vatolakkos, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 45%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
14%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–011.7%
- 2–011.0%
- 4–09.4%
- 3–17.5%
- 2–17.0%
Recent form
Alexandros Florinas
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vatolakkos · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Veria · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Thyella Katsikas · 4-1 (W)
Vatolakkos
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Makedonikos Siatista | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 2 | Veria | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 3 | Anagennisi Artas | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Eordaikos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Doxa Mascholouriou | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Alexandros Florinas | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | PAS Giannina | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Kastoria | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Naousa | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 10 | Thyella Katsikas | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 2 |
| 11 | Vatolakkos | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alexandros Florinas win, at 86.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 86% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.