Alfaro vs Náxara Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Alfaro and 1.60 for Náxara, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Náxara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.60

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Alfaro win35%

Draw24%

Náxara win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–111.0%
1–28.8%
2–18.0%
0–17.6%
1–06.9%

Why the model likes this

Náxara away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Náxara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 35% / 24% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Alfaro and 1.60 for Náxara, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Alfaro

Náxara

2026-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Haro Deportivo · 4-1 (W)
2026-05-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Eibar II · 2-3 (L)
2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Beasain · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Alfaro · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs SD Logroñés · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona B	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Terrassa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Osasuna II	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Espanyol II	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Reddis	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Peña Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Barbastro	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Utebo	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Tudelano	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Olot	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Náxara	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	SD Logroñés	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Arnedo	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Ebro	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Girona II	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	UD Logroñés II	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Manresa	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Castellón II	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.