· Analysis updated 13:09 UTC
Alfaro vs River Ebro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.37 expected goals for Alfaro and 0.89 for River Ebro, a combined total of 3.27. That distribution gives Alfaro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Alfaro win
70.2% probability
Expected goals
2.37 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
River Ebro away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alfaro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 17% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.37 goals for Alfaro and 0.89 for River Ebro, a combined 3.27 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.7%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.0%
- 3–08.5%
- 1–18.1%
Recent form
Alfaro
River Ebro
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Pradejón · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs San Marcial · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Cenicero · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Yagüe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Berceo · 0-7 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2024-03-23T15:30:00.000Z · Alfaro 1-2 River Ebro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
- 2023-11-05T15:30:00.000Z · Alfaro 2-1 River Ebro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
- 2022-03-27T15:00:00.000Z · Alfaro 0-2 River Ebro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
- 2021-11-14T16:00:00.000Z · Alfaro 2-0 River Ebro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
- 2019-10-27T14:30:00.000Z · Alfaro 2-1 River Ebro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haro Deportivo | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Alfaro | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Berceo | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | La Calzada | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Pradejón | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Varea | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Calahorra | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 12 |
| 8 | San Marcial | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 9 | Anguiano | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | Oyonesa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Agoncillo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Comillas | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Yagüe | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Cenicero | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Calasancio | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 5 |
| 16 | Vianés | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 17 | River Ebro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
| 18 | Casalarreina | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alfaro win, at 70.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.