Alfaro vs Vianés Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Alfaro and 1.21 for Vianés, a combined total of 3.11. That distribution gives Alfaro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Alfaro win

53.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.90 – 1.21

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Most likely outcome
The model rates Alfaro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 22% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Alfaro and 1.21 for Vianés, a combined 3.11 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 53% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.

Match result (1X2)

Alfaro win53%

Draw22%

Vianés win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–110.3%
2–19.7%
1–08.5%
2–08.0%
1–26.2%

Recent form

Alfaro

Vianés

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Berceo	6	5	0	1	13	15
2	Alfaro	6	4	1	1	3	13
3	Haro Deportivo	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Calahorra	6	4	0	2	11	12
5	La Calzada	6	4	0	2	1	12
6	Pradejón	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Varea	6	2	4	0	2	10
8	San Marcial	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Agoncillo	6	2	2	2	3	8
10	Anguiano	6	2	2	2	2	8
11	Oyonesa	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Yagüe	6	2	0	4	-6	6
13	Cenicero	6	1	2	3	-3	5
14	Comillas	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Calasancio	6	1	2	3	-9	5
16	Vianés	6	1	1	4	-1	4
17	River Ebro	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Casalarreina	6	1	0	5	-9	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Alfaro win, at 53.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.