· Analysis updated 22:09 UTC
Alfreton Town vs Shifnal Town FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Alfreton Town and 1.14 for Shifnal Town FC, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives Alfreton Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alfreton Town win
50.8% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alfreton Town home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shifnal Town FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alfreton Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 24% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Alfreton Town and 1.14 for Shifnal Town FC, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.4%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
Alfreton Town
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Warrington Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ashton United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bury · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs United of Manchester · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Redcar Athletic · 1-3 (L)
Shifnal Town FC
- 2026-07-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Coleshill Town · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rushall Olympic · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lower Breck · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kidsgrove Athletic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wythenshawe Town · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alfreton Town win, at 50.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.