· Analysis updated 15:32 UTC
Álftanes vs Kári Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.50 expected goals for Álftanes and 4.50 for Kári, a combined total of 8.00. That distribution gives Kári the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 94% for over 2.5 goals and 91% for both teams to score, with 3–4 the single most likely scoreline at 4%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kári win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
3.50 – 4.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Álftanes home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kári to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 30% / 14% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.50 goals for Álftanes and 4.50 for Kári, a combined 8.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 94% and both teams to score at 91%, with 3–4 the single most likely scoreline at 4%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–44.1%
- 3–53.7%
- 3–33.6%
- 4–43.6%
- 2–43.5%
Recent form
Álftanes
- 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dalvík / Reynir · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-04-06T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Grotta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Kári · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-03-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Kría · 5-2 (W)
- 2025-07-16T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Ýmir · 4-7 (L)
Kári
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kári win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–4.
It puts both teams scoring at 91% and over 2.5 goals at 94%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.