· Analysis updated 15:36 UTC
Alga vs Kara-Balta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.28 expected goals for Alga and 0.61 for Kara-Balta, a combined total of 3.88. That distribution gives Alga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 87%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 87% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alga win
87.4% probability
Expected goals
3.28 – 0.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alga home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Kara-Balta away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 87%, against 87% / 9% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.28 goals for Alga and 0.61 for Kara-Balta, a combined 3.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
13%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–012.1%
- 2–011.1%
- 4–09.9%
- 3–17.3%
- 1–06.8%
Recent form
Alga
- 2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kara-Balta · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Asia Talas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Neftchi · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-24T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bishkek City · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Toktogul · 0-1 (L)
Kara-Balta
- 2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Asia Talas · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Asiagoal · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Toktogul · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Muras United · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bars | 24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 32 | 49 |
| 2 | Asia Talas | 25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 49 |
| 3 | Alga | 24 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 49 |
| 4 | Ozgon | 23 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 48 |
| 5 | Muras United | 23 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 27 | 47 |
| 6 | Alay | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 40 |
| 7 | Talant | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 33 |
| 8 | Bishkek City | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | -3 | 30 |
| 9 | Neftchi | 25 | 9 | 3 | 13 | -9 | 30 |
| 10 | Dordoi Bishkek | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 29 |
| 11 | Ilbirs | 24 | 6 | 10 | 8 | -8 | 28 |
| 12 | Toktogul | 24 | 8 | 4 | 12 | -11 | 28 |
| 13 | OshMU Aldier | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 28 |
| 14 | Asiagoal | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -14 | 21 |
| 15 | Abdish-Ata | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -27 | 15 |
| 16 | Kara-Balta | 25 | 1 | 6 | 18 | -48 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alga win, at 87.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 87% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.