Estadio Nuevo Mirador · Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
Algeciras vs Hércules Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for Algeciras and 1.19 for Hércules, a combined total of 2.26. That distribution gives Hércules the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.4% probability
Expected goals
1.07 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Algeciras home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hércules away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hércules to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 33% / 29% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.07 goals for Algeciras and 1.19 for Hércules, a combined 2.26 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.5%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–010.4%
- 1–27.9%
Recent form
Algeciras
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Águilas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Gimnastic · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:15:00.000Z · H vs FC Cartagena · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham Hotspur U21 · 1-1 (D)
Hércules
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Jaén · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Águilas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Torremolinos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Europa Fc · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Madrid II · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaragoza | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Real Murcia | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Villarreal II | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Hércules | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Alcorcon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | FC Cartagena | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Real Jaén | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Antequera | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Huesca | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Ibiza | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Atlético Madrid II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Real Madrid II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | Sant Andreu | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Gimnastic | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Algeciras | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Europa Fc | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Águilas | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 | Teruel | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
| 19 | Rayo Majadahonda | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 20 | Juventud Torremolinos | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.