Algeria U20 vs Tunisia U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Algeria U20 and 1.10 for Tunisia U20, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Algeria U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Most likely outcome
The model rates Algeria U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 28% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Algeria U20 and 1.10 for Tunisia U20, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 68% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.

Match result (1X2)

Algeria U20 win40%

Draw28%

Tunisia U20 win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–113.1%
1–012.0%
0–110.5%
0–09.6%
2–18.2%

Recent form

Algeria U20

2026-09-30T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Morocco U20 · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Libya U20 · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Tunisia U20 · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Tunisia U20 · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Tunisia U20 · 0-1 (L)

Tunisia U20

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Africa Cup of Nations U20 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Egypt U20	4	3	0	1	3	9
2	Morocco U20	4	2	1	1	3	7
3	Burkina Faso U20	2	2	0	0	5	6
4	Cameroon U20	2	2	0	0	5	6
5	Guinea U20	2	2	0	0	2	6
6	Gambia U20	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Algeria U20	4	1	1	2	-2	4
8	Libya U20	4	1	1	2	-3	4
9	Senegal U20	1	1	0	0	1	3
10	Tunisia U20	4	0	3	1	-1	3
11	Congo U20	2	0	2	0	0	2
12	Côte d'Ivoire U20	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	Congo DR U20	2	0	2	0	0	2
14	Gabon U20	2	0	2	0	0	2
15	Liberia U20	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Central African Rep. U20	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Niger U20	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Nigeria U20	2	0	1	1	-3	1
19	Chad U20	2	0	1	1	-3	1
20	Mauritania U20	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Mali U20	2	0	0	2	-2	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.