Arrowhead Stadium · Referee I. Tantashev · Analysis updated 13:40 UTC
Algeria vs Austria Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Algeria and 1.75 for Austria, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Austria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Austria win
49.1% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Algeria home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Austria away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Austria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 27% / 24% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Algeria and 1.75 for Austria, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–18.7%
- 0–27.6%
- 2–16.8%
Recent form
Algeria
- 2026-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Burundi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Zambia · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-03T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Switzerland · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-28T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Austria · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-06-23T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Jordan · 2-1 (W)
Austria
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kosovo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rep. Of Ireland · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kosovo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Israel · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-02T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Spain · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
World Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | South Korea | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Czechia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 1 | Switzerland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Canada | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 3 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Qatar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
| 1 | Brazil | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Morocco | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Scotland | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Haiti | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 1 | USA | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Australia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Paraguay | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 1 | Germany | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Curaçao | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
| 1 | Netherlands | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Japan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| 3 | Sweden | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 |
| 1 | Belgium | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 3 | Iran | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 1 | Spain | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Cape Verde Islands | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Uruguay | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 2 |
| 1 | France | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Norway | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Iraq | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 0 |
| 1 | Argentina | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Austria | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Algeria | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Jordan | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 1 | Colombia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Portugal | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 3 | Congo DR | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Uzbekistan | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
| 1 | England | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Croatia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Ghana | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Panama | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Congo DR | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Sweden | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Ghana | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 6 | Algeria | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 7 | Paraguay | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Iran | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | South Korea | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Scotland | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Uruguay | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Austria win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.