Moulay Hassan Stadium · Referee Daniel Laryea, Ghana · Analysis updated 16:29 UTC
Algeria vs Burkina Faso Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Algeria and 0.80 for Burkina Faso, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives Algeria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Algeria win
53.4% probability
Expected goals
1.49 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Algeria home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Burkina Faso away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Algeria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 26% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Algeria and 0.80 for Burkina Faso, a combined 2.29 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–011.2%
- 0–010.1%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Algeria
- 2026-10-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Niger · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Burundi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Zambia · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-03T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Switzerland · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-28T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Austria · 3-3 (D)
Burkina Faso
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Central African Republic · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Benin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Belarus · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Russia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-31T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guinea-Bissau · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Africa Cup of Nations table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morocco | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Mali | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Comoros | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 | Zambia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
| 1 | Egypt | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Angola | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Zimbabwe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Tunisia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Tanzania | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Uganda | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 1 | Senegal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Congo DR | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Benin | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Botswana | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| 1 | Algeria | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 4 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Cameroon | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Mozambique | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Gabon | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 1 | Mozambique | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 2 | Benin | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 4 | Tanzania | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 5 | Angola | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 6 | Comoros | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Algeria win, at 53.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.