Khalifa International Stadium · Analysis updated 16:01 UTC
Algeria vs Iraq Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Algeria and 0.86 for Iraq, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Algeria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Algeria win
57.7% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Algeria home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Iraq away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Algeria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 24% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Algeria and 0.86 for Iraq, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–011.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
Algeria
- 2026-10-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Niger · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Burundi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Zambia · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-03T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Switzerland · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-28T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Austria · 3-3 (D)
Iraq
- 2026-06-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Senegal · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-06-22T21:00:00.000Z · A vs France · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Norway · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-06-10T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Venezuela · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Spain · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Arab Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Algeria win, at 57.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.