Stade Mustapha Tchaker · Analysis updated 14:14 UTC
Algeria W vs Malawi W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Algeria W and 1.58 for Malawi W, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Algeria W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.8% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Algeria W home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Malawi W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Algeria W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 23% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Algeria W and 1.58 for Malawi W, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Algeria W
- 2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Malawi W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ivory Coast W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Kenya W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-30T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco W · 0-1 (L)
Malawi W
- 2026-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cameroon W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Algeria W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Ghana W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-05T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Zambia W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Egypt W · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-12T17:00:00.000Z · Algeria W 1-3 Malawi W (Africa Cup of Nations - Women)
Africa Cup of Nations - Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morocco W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Algeria W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Senegal W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Kenya W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| 1 | Ivory Coast W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | South Africa W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Tanzania W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Burkina Faso W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 1 | Zambia W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Nigeria W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Malawi W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Egypt W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 0 |
| 1 | Cameroon W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Ghana W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Mali W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Cape Verde W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.