· Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
Algeria W vs Zambia W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Algeria W and 1.17 for Zambia W, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Algeria W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Algeria W win
62.1% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Algeria W home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Zambia W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Algeria W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 19% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Algeria W and 1.17 for Zambia W, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–08.2%
- 3–17.3%
- 1–07.2%
Recent form
Algeria W
- 2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Malawi W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ivory Coast W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Kenya W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-30T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco W · 0-1 (L)
Zambia W
- 2026-10-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Uganda W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Uganda W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-05T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Malawi W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Nigeria W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Egypt W · 6-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-22T17:00:00.000Z · Algeria W 1-0 Zambia W (Friendlies Women)
- 2026-07-19T17:00:00.000Z · Algeria W 1-1 Zambia W (Friendlies Women)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Algeria W win, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.