· Analysis updated 14:20 UTC
Algyő SK vs ESMTK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Algyő SK and 2.13 for ESMTK, a combined total of 3.29. That distribution gives ESMTK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
ESMTK win
59.5% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Algyő SK home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
ESMTK away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ESMTK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 20% / 21% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Algyő SK and 2.13 for ESMTK, a combined 3.29 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.2%
- 0–28.4%
- 0–17.9%
- 1–37.0%
Recent form
Algyő SK
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs ESMTK · 0-3 (L)
- 2024-08-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Szarvasi · 1-6 (L)
- 2024-08-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Testvériség · 0-1 (L)
- 2023-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pilisi LK · 0-1 (L)
- 2023-08-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Füzesgyarmati · 2-1 (W)
ESMTK
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Sándorfalva · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Algyő SK · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T15:30:00.000Z · A vs BKV Előre · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Csepel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Hódmezővásárhely · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is ESMTK win, at 59.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.