Campo Municipal de Fútbol José Kubala · Referee A. Fernandez Firvida · Analysis updated 16:35 UTC
Alhama W vs Espanyol W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Alhama W and 1.65 for Espanyol W, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Espanyol W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Espanyol W win
50.8% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alhama W home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Espanyol W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Espanyol W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 25% / 25% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Alhama W and 1.65 for Espanyol W, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–28.9%
- 1–07.0%
Recent form
Alhama W
- 2026-05-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-05-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Levante W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eibar W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-01T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo de La Coruña W · 2-2 (D)
Espanyol W
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Alavés W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo de La Coruña W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Madrid CFF W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Levante Badalona W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-01T10:00:00.000Z · Alhama W 3-1 Espanyol W (Primera División Femenina)
- 2025-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · Alhama W 0-3 Espanyol W (Primera División Femenina)
Primera División Femenina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 21 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 3 | Athletic Club W | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid W | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Madrid CFF W | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 13 |
| 6 | Eibar W | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Granad. Tenerife W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Granada | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 9 | Espanyol W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Edf Logrono W | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Real Sociedad W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | Sevilla W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | FC Levante Badalona W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Deportivo Alavés W | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Valencia W | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Espanyol W win, at 50.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.