Estadio Campeones del 36 · Referee Joel Alarcon, Peru · Analysis updated 15:00 UTC
Alianza Atletico vs Cienciano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Alianza Atletico and 1.50 for Cienciano, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Alianza Atletico the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alianza Atletico home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cienciano away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–28.0%
- 1–07.1%
- 0–16.6%
Recent form
Alianza Atletico
- 2026-10-24T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Sport Huancayo · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-18T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitario · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Sport Boys · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-06T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Boys · 0-3 (L)
Cienciano
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV Moquegua · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs ADT · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Torque · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Torque · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-06T20:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 1-0 Cienciano (Primera División)
- 2026-02-22T00:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 1-1 Cienciano (Primera División)
- 2025-10-25T20:15:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 0-1 Cienciano (Primera División)
- 2025-06-22T22:30:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 2-3 Cienciano (Primera División)
- 2024-10-24T22:30:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 0-3 Cienciano (Primera División)
- 2024-05-13T19:30:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 0-1 Cienciano (Primera División)
- 2023-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 2-1 Cienciano (Primera División)
- 2023-05-10T20:30:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 2-5 Cienciano (Primera División)
- 2022-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 1-0 Cienciano (Primera División)
- 2022-04-10T00:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 0-5 Cienciano (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.