Estadio Campeones del 36 · Referee S. Lozano · Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Alianza Atletico vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.82 expected goals for Alianza Atletico and 1.19 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas, a combined total of 4.01. That distribution gives Alianza Atletico the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alianza Atletico win
71.1% probability
Expected goals
2.82 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alianza Atletico home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alianza Atletico to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 15% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.82 goals for Alianza Atletico and 1.19 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas, a combined 4.01 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–07.2%
- 3–06.8%
- 1–16.1%
Recent form
Alianza Atletico
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Boys · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Comerciantes Unidos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Grau · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T20:15:00.000Z · H vs UTC Cajamarca · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV Moquegua · 4-1 (W)
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Cienciano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cajamarca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Juan Pablo II College · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-23T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alianza Atletico win, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.