Estadio Campeones del 36 · Referee Sebastian Lozano, Peru · Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Alianza Atletico and 0.79 for Comerciantes Unidos, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Alianza Atletico the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alianza Atletico win
51.7% probability
Expected goals
1.41 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alianza Atletico home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Comerciantes Unidos away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.6%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–011.0%
- 0–18.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.91 (model 58.7% vs market 48.9%, edge +9.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.91 | 48.9% | 58.7% | 1.70 | +9.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 78.8% | 79.0% | 1.27 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 4.33 | 20.9% | 21.0% | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.75 | 51.7% | 51.7% | 1.93 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.7% | 72.7% | 1.38 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.4% | 27.3% | 3.66 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.95 | 48.5% | 48.3% | 2.07 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.83 | 51.1% | 41.3% | 2.42 | -9.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Alianza Atletico
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Boys · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Comerciantes Unidos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Grau · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T20:15:00.000Z · H vs UTC Cajamarca · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV Moquegua · 4-1 (W)
Comerciantes Unidos
- 2026-09-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Atletico · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Huancayo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T20:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cajamarca · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T18:15:00.000Z · A vs UTC Cajamarca · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-18T20:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 2-1 Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División)
- 2026-04-22T18:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 0-1 Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División)
- 2025-10-18T20:15:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 0-1 Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División)
- 2025-06-12T20:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 3-0 Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División)
- 2024-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 1-0 Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División)
- 2024-04-23T20:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 0-0 Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División)
- 2020-12-11T21:45:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 1-2 Comerciantes Unidos (Segunda División)
- 2019-11-10T20:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 4-1 Comerciantes Unidos (Segunda División)
- 2019-08-23T20:30:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 1-3 Comerciantes Unidos (Segunda División)
- 2017-10-15T18:15:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 3-2 Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alianza Atletico win, at 51.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.