Estadio Campeones del 36 · Analysis updated 17:04 UTC
Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Alianza Atletico and 1.92 for Deportivo Garcilaso, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Deportivo Garcilaso the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Deportivo Garcilaso win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alianza Atletico home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Garcilaso away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Garcilaso to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 31% / 22% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for Alianza Atletico and 1.92 for Deportivo Garcilaso, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 1–29.0%
- 2–17.1%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.2%
Recent form
Alianza Atletico
- 2026-10-24T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Sport Huancayo · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-18T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitario · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Sport Boys · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-06T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Boys · 0-3 (L)
Deportivo Garcilaso
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · A vs FBC Melgar · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Huancayo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Universitario · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Boys · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Grau · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportivo Garcilaso win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.