Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Alianza Atletico and 1.23 for FBC Melgar, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Alianza Atletico the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.53 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Alianza Atletico home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FBC Melgar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Alianza Atletico win44%

Draw25%

FBC Melgar win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.9%
1–09.7%
2–19.1%
0–17.8%
2–07.4%

Recent form

Alianza Atletico

2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Boys · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-18T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Comerciantes Unidos · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Grau · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-04T20:15:00.000Z · H vs UTC Cajamarca · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV Moquegua · 4-1 (W)

FBC Melgar

2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cusco · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T23:30:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-01T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Grau · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-31T16:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 1-3 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2025-08-01T20:15:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 0-0 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2025-02-24T00:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 1-2 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2024-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 3-1 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2024-02-10T20:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 0-1 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2023-09-15T20:20:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 0-4 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2023-04-24T18:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 3-3 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2022-10-30T20:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 1-0 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2022-07-03T20:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 0-0 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2021-08-13T18:15:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 3-3 FBC Melgar (Primera División)

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	29	18	8	3	29	62
2	Universitario	29	15	8	6	15	53
3	FBC Melgar	29	14	8	7	18	50
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	14	6	9	12	48
5	Cienciano	29	14	5	10	9	47
6	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	13	7	9	-8	46
7	Cusco	29	14	3	12	0	45
8	Sporting Cristal	29	13	5	11	11	44
9	Alianza Atletico	29	12	7	10	4	43
10	Sport Huancayo	29	12	5	12	-5	41
11	Sport Boys	29	10	8	11	-1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	29	10	8	11	-8	38
13	Atletico Grau	29	9	6	14	-7	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	7	10	12	-5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	7	7	15	-12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	7	7	15	-18	28
17	ADT	29	6	8	15	-14	26
18	UTC Cajamarca	29	4	8	17	-20	15
1	Alianza Lima	17	12	4	1	22	40
2	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	17	10	4	3	4	34
3	Cienciano	17	10	3	4	12	33
4	Universitario	17	8	5	4	9	29
5	FBC Melgar	17	8	4	5	9	28
6	Cusco	17	8	3	6	-3	27
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	17	7	5	5	3	26
8	Alianza Atletico	17	5	6	6	2	21
9	Comerciantes Unidos	17	5	6	6	-2	21
10	ADT	17	5	5	7	1	20
11	Sport Boys	17	5	5	7	-4	20
12	Sporting Cristal	17	5	4	8	-2	19
13	UTC Cajamarca	17	4	6	7	-5	18
14	UCV Moquegua	17	5	3	9	-7	18
15	FC Cajamarca	17	4	5	8	-5	17
16	Atletico Grau	17	4	4	9	-6	16
17	Sport Huancayo	17	4	4	9	-10	16
18	Juan Pablo II College	17	4	4	9	-18	16
1	Sporting Cristal	12	8	1	3	13	25
2	Sport Huancayo	12	8	1	3	5	25
3	Universitario	12	7	3	2	6	24
4	Juan Pablo II College	12	6	4	2	10	22
5	FBC Melgar	12	6	4	2	9	22
6	Deportivo Garcilaso	12	7	1	4	9	22
7	Alianza Lima	12	6	4	2	7	22
8	Alianza Atletico	12	7	1	4	2	22
9	Cusco	12	6	0	6	3	18
10	Sport Boys	12	5	3	4	3	18
11	Atletico Grau	12	5	2	5	-1	17
12	Cienciano	12	4	2	6	-3	14
13	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	12	3	3	6	-12	12
14	FC Cajamarca	12	3	2	7	-7	11
15	Comerciantes Unidos	12	2	4	6	-3	10
16	UCV Moquegua	12	2	4	6	-11	10
17	ADT	12	1	3	8	-15	6
18	UTC Cajamarca	12	0	2	10	-15	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.