Estadio Campeones del 36 · Referee Junior Rivera, Peru · Analysis updated 14:59 UTC
Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Alianza Atletico and 1.00 for UTC Cajamarca, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Alianza Atletico the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alianza Atletico win
62.6% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alianza Atletico home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UTC Cajamarca away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.5%
- 1–19.5%
- 3–07.0%
Recent form
Alianza Atletico
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Boys · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Comerciantes Unidos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Grau · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T20:15:00.000Z · H vs UTC Cajamarca · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV Moquegua · 4-1 (W)
UTC Cajamarca
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Huancayo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Juan Pablo II College · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Atletico · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitario · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-04T20:15:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 3-2 UTC Cajamarca (Primera División)
- 2026-08-25T20:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 1-1 UTC Cajamarca (Copa De La Liga)
- 2026-03-22T18:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 1-1 UTC Cajamarca (Primera División)
- 2025-08-11T20:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 2-0 UTC Cajamarca (Primera División)
- 2025-03-08T18:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 0-0 UTC Cajamarca (Primera División)
- 2024-08-01T20:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 1-1 UTC Cajamarca (Primera División)
- 2024-02-16T19:30:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 2-0 UTC Cajamarca (Primera División)
- 2023-07-14T20:30:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 1-1 UTC Cajamarca (Primera División)
- 2023-02-12T16:00:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 2-0 UTC Cajamarca (Primera División)
- 2022-07-18T20:30:00.000Z · Alianza Atletico 1-2 UTC Cajamarca (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alianza Atletico win, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.