Estadio Javier Cruz · Analysis updated 19:10 UTC
Alianza FC vs Deportivo Universitario Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Alianza FC and 1.18 for Deportivo Universitario, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Alianza FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alianza FC win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alianza FC home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Universitario away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.9%
- 0–17.7%
Recent form
Alianza FC
- 2026-10-04T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Herrera · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente de La Chorrera · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:15:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Universitario · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Veraguas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T23:15:00.000Z · H vs San Francisco FC · 1-1 (D)
Deportivo Universitario
- 2026-10-24T23:15:00.000Z · H vs Independiente de La Chorrera · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T01:30:00.000Z · A vs San Francisco FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Plaza Amador · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T23:15:00.000Z · H vs UMECIT · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Alianza FC · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-07T23:15:00.000Z · Alianza FC 1-0 Deportivo Universitario (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2025-11-13T01:00:00.000Z · Alianza FC 2-2 Deportivo Universitario (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2025-09-20T23:15:00.000Z · Alianza FC 0-0 Deportivo Universitario (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2025-03-18T01:30:00.000Z · Alianza FC 0-1 Deportivo Universitario (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2024-08-31T01:30:00.000Z · Alianza FC 2-1 Deportivo Universitario (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2024-03-02T21:00:00.000Z · Alianza FC 1-0 Deportivo Universitario (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2023-09-23T21:00:00.000Z · Alianza FC 1-1 Deportivo Universitario (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2023-03-26T22:10:00.000Z · Alianza FC 1-1 Deportivo Universitario (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2022-09-10T23:15:00.000Z · Alianza FC 0-1 Deportivo Universitario (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2022-03-26T01:00:00.000Z · Alianza FC 2-0 Deportivo Universitario (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
Liga Panameña de Fútbol table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 31 |
| 2 | Alianza FC | 16 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 27 |
| 3 | UMECIT | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 25 |
| 4 | Veraguas | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 5 | Union Cocle | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Tauro FC | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | CD Arabe Unido | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 8 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | San Francisco FC | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | -3 | 20 |
| 10 | Sporting San Miguelito | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 11 | Deportivo Universitario | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -8 | 14 |
| 12 | Herrera | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | -24 | 8 |
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 30 |
| 2 | San Francisco FC | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | CD Arabe Unido | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 23 |
| 4 | UMECIT | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | Veraguas | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Tauro FC | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 | Alianza FC | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Sporting San Miguelito | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 | Deportivo Universitario | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Herrera | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 11 |
| 12 | Union Cocle | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alianza FC win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.