Estadio Javier Cruz · Analysis updated 22:52 UTC
Alianza FC vs Plaza Amador Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Alianza FC and 1.73 for Plaza Amador, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Plaza Amador the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Plaza Amador win
46.9% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alianza FC home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Plaza Amador away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–18.2%
- 2–17.2%
- 0–27.0%
Recent form
Alianza FC
- 2026-10-04T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Herrera · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente de La Chorrera · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:15:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Universitario · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Veraguas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T23:15:00.000Z · H vs San Francisco FC · 1-1 (D)
Plaza Amador
- 2026-10-04T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Universitario · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Cocle · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Veraguas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Independiente de La Chorrera · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Herrera · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T23:15:00.000Z · Alianza FC 2-4 Plaza Amador (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2026-05-23T23:00:00.000Z · Alianza FC 2-3 Plaza Amador (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2026-04-12T01:30:00.000Z · Alianza FC 1-1 Plaza Amador (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2026-02-07T23:15:00.000Z · Alianza FC 1-1 Plaza Amador (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2025-11-29T23:00:00.000Z · Alianza FC 0-2 Plaza Amador (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2025-10-26T00:15:00.000Z · Alianza FC 1-0 Plaza Amador (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2025-08-09T01:30:00.000Z · Alianza FC 2-3 Plaza Amador (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2025-04-06T01:15:00.000Z · Alianza FC 3-3 Plaza Amador (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2025-02-16T21:00:00.000Z · Alianza FC 0-2 Plaza Amador (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2024-10-20T01:15:00.000Z · Alianza FC 1-2 Plaza Amador (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
Liga Panameña de Fútbol table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 31 |
| 2 | Alianza FC | 16 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 27 |
| 3 | UMECIT | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 25 |
| 4 | Veraguas | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 5 | Union Cocle | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Tauro FC | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | CD Arabe Unido | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 8 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | San Francisco FC | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | -3 | 20 |
| 10 | Sporting San Miguelito | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 11 | Deportivo Universitario | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -8 | 14 |
| 12 | Herrera | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | -24 | 8 |
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 30 |
| 2 | San Francisco FC | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | CD Arabe Unido | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 23 |
| 4 | UMECIT | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | Veraguas | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Tauro FC | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 | Alianza FC | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Sporting San Miguelito | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 | Deportivo Universitario | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Herrera | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 11 |
| 12 | Union Cocle | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Plaza Amador win, at 46.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.