Estadio Alejandro Villanueva · Referee Michael Espinoza · Analysis updated 14:37 UTC
Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Alianza Lima and 0.95 for Atletico Grau, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives Alianza Lima the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alianza Lima win
54.0% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alianza Lima home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Grau away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alianza Lima to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 24% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for Alianza Lima and 0.95 for Atletico Grau, a combined 2.62 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.2%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.3%
Recent form
Alianza Lima
- 2026-10-11T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Cusco · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-01T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Palestino · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T01:00:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Universitario · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Juan Pablo II College · 1-1 (D)
Atletico Grau
- 2026-09-19T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Atletico · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-01T20:00:00.000Z · H vs FBC Melgar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alianza Lima win, at 54.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.