Estadio Alejandro Villanueva · Referee Micke Palomino, Peru · Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
Alianza Lima vs Universitario Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Alianza Lima and 1.15 for Universitario, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Alianza Lima the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alianza Lima win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alianza Lima home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Universitario away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.3%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
Alianza Lima
- 2026-10-01T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Palestino · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T01:00:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Universitario · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Juan Pablo II College · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 0-1 (L)
Universitario
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs FBC Melgar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Lima · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Comerciantes Unidos · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T20:30:00.000Z · A vs UTC Cajamarca · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-05T01:00:00.000Z · Alianza Lima 0-1 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2025-08-24T22:30:00.000Z · Alianza Lima 0-0 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2025-04-06T00:00:00.000Z · Alianza Lima 1-1 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2024-07-27T01:30:00.000Z · Alianza Lima 1-2 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2024-02-11T01:00:00.000Z · Alianza Lima 0-1 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2023-11-09T01:00:00.000Z · Alianza Lima 0-2 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2023-11-05T01:00:00.000Z · Alianza Lima 1-1 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2023-07-23T01:30:00.000Z · Alianza Lima 0-0 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2023-02-19T20:30:00.000Z · Alianza Lima 2-1 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2022-09-04T20:30:00.000Z · Alianza Lima 0-2 Universitario (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alianza Lima win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.