Alianza vs CD Motagua Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.72 expected goals for Alianza and 1.37 for CD Motagua, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives CD Motagua the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

CD Motagua win

52.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.72 – 1.37

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Alianza home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CD Motagua away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CD Motagua to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 20% / 28% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.72 goals for Alianza and 1.37 for CD Motagua, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Alianza win20%

Draw28%

CD Motagua win52%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

0–117.0%
0–012.4%
1–112.2%
0–211.6%
1–08.9%

Recent form

Alianza

2026-10-24T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Isidro Metapán · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-21T02:00:00.000Z · A vs CD Marathon · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Cacahuatique · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-11T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-09T01:30:00.000Z · A vs FAS · 1-2 (L)

CD Motagua

2026-10-25T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Juticalpa · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-23T01:00:00.000Z · H vs LD Alajuelense · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense FC · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-10T23:15:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Choloma · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Espana · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

CONCACAF Central American Cup table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CD Olimpia	6	6	0	0	12	18
2	LD Alajuelense	6	4	1	1	6	13
3	CD Motagua	6	3	3	0	9	12
4	CS Cartagines	6	3	3	0	7	12
5	Deportivo Saprissa	6	3	1	2	3	10
6	Alianza	6	3	1	2	-2	10
7	CD Marathon	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	CS Herediano	4	2	1	1	2	7
9	Firpo	6	2	1	3	-2	7
10	Municipal	4	1	3	0	1	6
11	Plaza Amador	4	2	0	2	0	6
12	Mixco	4	2	0	2	0	6
13	Real Estelí	4	2	0	2	-1	6
14	FAS	4	1	1	2	0	4
15	Xelajú	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Alianza FC	4	1	0	3	-4	3
17	Diriangén	4	1	0	3	-6	3
18	UMECIT	4	0	0	4	-6	0
19	Antigua GFC	4	0	0	4	-7	0
20	Verdes	4	0	0	4	-13	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is CD Motagua win, at 52.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.