· Analysis updated 21:43 UTC
Alianza vs Isidro Metapán Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Alianza and 1.35 for Isidro Metapán, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Alianza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alianza home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Isidro Metapán away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alianza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 25% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Alianza and 1.35 for Isidro Metapán, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–17.8%
Recent form
Alianza
- 2026-10-21T02:00:00.000Z · A vs CD Marathon · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Cacahuatique · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T01:30:00.000Z · A vs FAS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Firpo · 2-2 (D)
Isidro Metapán
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Fuerte San Francisco · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Águila · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Balboa · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Cacahuatique · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Firpo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 31 |
| 2 | FAS | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 31 |
| 3 | Isidro Metapán | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 30 |
| 4 | Águila | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | Inter | 17 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 26 |
| 6 | Alianza | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 23 |
| 7 | Platense | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 | Municipal Limeño | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | Inca Aruba | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -18 | 16 |
| 10 | Atletico Balboa | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -8 | 14 |
| 11 | Cacahuatique | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -11 | 13 |
| 12 | Fuerte San Francisco | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.