Stade Henri Bausch · Analysis updated 21:41 UTC
Alisontia Steinsel vs Progres Niederkorn Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.75 expected goals for Alisontia Steinsel and 4.50 for Progres Niederkorn, a combined total of 8.25. That distribution gives Progres Niederkorn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 93% for over 2.5 goals and 91% for both teams to score, with 3–4 the single most likely scoreline at 4%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Progres Niederkorn win
52.2% probability
Expected goals
3.75 – 4.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alisontia Steinsel home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Progres Niederkorn away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Progres Niederkorn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 33% / 14% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.75 goals for Alisontia Steinsel and 4.50 for Progres Niederkorn, a combined 8.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–43.9%
- 4–43.7%
- 3–53.5%
- 3–33.5%
- 4–53.3%
Recent form
Alisontia Steinsel
- 2026-03-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Feulen · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Yellow Boys Weiler · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Mertzig · 3-2 (W)
- 2024-11-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Differdange 03 · 0-1 (L)
- 2024-10-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Alliance Aischdall · 3-2 (W)
Progres Niederkorn
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Hostert · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kopstal 33 · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiltz · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs US Rumelange · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2024-04-03T18:00:00.000Z · Alisontia Steinsel 1-3 Progres Niederkorn (Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Progres Niederkorn win, at 52.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–4.
It puts both teams scoring at 91% and over 2.5 goals at 93%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.