Estádio Municipal de Aljustrel · Referee João Marques · Analysis updated 13:42 UTC
Aljustrelense vs Amora Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Aljustrelense and 1.90 for Amora, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Amora the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Amora win
67.8% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aljustrelense home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Amora away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Amora to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 11% / 21% / 68% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.63 goals for Aljustrelense and 1.90 for Amora, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
32%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.2%
- 0–214.5%
- 1–19.5%
- 0–39.2%
- 1–29.0%
Recent form
Aljustrelense
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sintrense · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lagoa · 1-1 (D)
- 2021-04-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria Setubal · 0-2 (L)
- 2021-04-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Moura · 2-1 (W)
- 2021-03-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Louletano · 1-2 (L)
Amora
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lajense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs UD da Serra · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs 1º Dezembro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria Setubal · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2021-03-07T15:00:00.000Z · Aljustrelense 0-5 Amora (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H)
- 2021-02-17T20:00:00.000Z · Aljustrelense 0-1 Amora (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H)
- 2020-02-16T15:00:00.000Z · Aljustrelense 0-0 Amora (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D)
- 2019-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · Aljustrelense 1-1 Amora (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D)
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Setubal | 20 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 29 | 50 |
| 2 | Amora | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 44 |
| 3 | Olhanense | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 4 | Louletano | 20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 34 |
| 5 | Moncarapachense | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 25 |
| 6 | Pinhalnovense | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 7 | Juventude Évora | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | -9 | 24 |
| 8 | Lagos | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -1 | 23 |
| 9 | Lusitano GC Évora | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 10 | Aljustrelense | 20 | 4 | 2 | 14 | -29 | 14 |
| 11 | Moura | 20 | 0 | 4 | 16 | -26 | 4 |
| 12 | Armacenenses | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Amora win, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.