Estádio Municipal de Aljustrel · Referee Pedro Viveiros · Analysis updated 16:56 UTC
Aljustrelense vs Louletano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.62 expected goals for Aljustrelense and 1.95 for Louletano, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Louletano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Louletano win
69.0% probability
Expected goals
0.62 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aljustrelense home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Louletano away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Louletano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 11% / 20% / 69% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.62 goals for Aljustrelense and 1.95 for Louletano, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
31%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.9%
- 0–214.5%
- 0–39.4%
- 1–19.3%
- 1–29.0%
Recent form
Aljustrelense
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sintrense · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lagoa · 1-1 (D)
- 2021-04-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria Setubal · 0-2 (L)
- 2021-04-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Moura · 2-1 (W)
- 2021-03-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Louletano · 1-2 (L)
Louletano
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória de Sernache · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Serpa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs União Santarém · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lusitano Évora 1911 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Castrense · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Setubal | 20 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 29 | 50 |
| 2 | Amora | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 44 |
| 3 | Olhanense | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 4 | Louletano | 20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 34 |
| 5 | Moncarapachense | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 25 |
| 6 | Pinhalnovense | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 7 | Juventude Évora | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | -9 | 24 |
| 8 | Lagos | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -1 | 23 |
| 9 | Lusitano GC Évora | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 10 | Aljustrelense | 20 | 4 | 2 | 14 | -29 | 14 |
| 11 | Moura | 20 | 0 | 4 | 16 | -26 | 4 |
| 12 | Armacenenses | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Louletano win, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.